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Consumers: The Wild, Wild East(节选)
A booming middle class is creating the world’s most dynamic consumer market
消费者：狂野东部(节选)
Are you being served?
Much of this new economy is moving on from supplying goods to providing services. In most rich countries services make up at least three-quarters of GDP, but in China they account for only half. The rising middle class is demanding better services in everything from health care to finance to entertainment. Both foreign and local investors are rushing in to fill the gap.
Two decades ago films made by Walt Disney, an American entertainment giant, were banned on the Chinese mainland, but now China is Disney’s most promising market. The company’s latest “Avengers” film earned over $200m in local theatres in its first two weeks. In May Disney opened its largest-ever retail store in Shanghai. And next year Shanghai Disney, a $5.5 billion theme park, will be ready to receive the crowds. Dalian Wanda, which made its fortune in property, is building a massive $8 billion film studio in Qingdao and will be spending over $30 billion on theme parks across China, confronting Disney head on.
Kai-fu Lee of Innovation Works believes that service startups are capable of creating billion-dollar industries. He points to Helijia, a firm valued at $300m that provides pedicures in people’s homes. “They can train workers affordably; Chinese love getting pampered; and our urban density allows this… you can’t do this in Kansas.” His firm is funding firms delivering services ranging from haircuts to car maintenance.
Jean Liu, president of Didi Kuaidi, thinks the sharing economy will allow scarce resources to be used more efficiently. Her ride-sharing firm counts both Tencent and Alibaba as investors. It offers everything from fancy cars and taxis to shuttle buses and car pools – or even someone on a bicycle to drive you home in your own car. It clocks up 6m rides a day, far outpacing Uber.
Neusoft, based in Shenyang, a city in China’s gritty industrial north-east, was started in 1991 with just $3,000 by Liu Jiren, an erstwhile academic. It is now one of China’s biggest IT-services providers. Having created a computer operating system that quickly got ripped off, his firm nearly went under. That taught him the value of protecting intellectual property. When he was a visiting scholar at an American government laboratory, he noticed that academics worked closely with corporate researchers. That inspired him to invest heavily in R&D. Among many other things, Neusoft makes systems that allow medical records to be viewed on mobiles. It is also developing a shared-services business model for medical equipment that will allow users to pay by transaction.
What helped Neusoft take off, says Mr Liu, was that there were no SOEs to block new software firms. “The Chinese state today is technologically sophisticated… but that was not the case at the start of the IT boom,” says Mr Liu. “We got lucky because the IT sector was so new, so driven by talent, that the government didn’t understand how it worked.”
这一新经济的很大部分正从提供产品转向提供服务。在大多数富裕国家，服务业至少占到GDP的四分之三，但在中国，这一比例只有一半。崛起的中产阶级在各方面都要求更好的服务，从医疗保健到金融服务，再到休闲娱乐。外国和本土投资者都蜂拥而至，填补空白。
二十年前，中国大陆还禁止上映美国娱乐巨头迪士尼公司发行的影片，而如今，中国已成为迪士尼最具潜力的市场。该公司最新一部《复仇者联盟》在国内院线上映的头两周票房就超过2亿美元。5月，迪士尼有史以来最大的零售店在上海开业。明年，投资55亿美元的上海迪士尼乐园将建成迎客。以地产起家的大连万达正在青岛建设投资达80亿美元的影视基地，还将投入超过300亿美元在全国各地建立主题公园，与迪士尼针锋相对。
创新工场的李开复认为，服务业创业公司能够形成多个数十亿美元的产业。他以河狸家为例，这家提供上门美甲服务的公司估值为3亿美元。“他们以合理的成本培训工人。中国人乐于享受，中国的城市密度也方便上门服务……你不可能在堪萨斯这样干。”创新工场为从理发到汽车保养的一系列服务型企业提供融资。
滴滴快的的总裁柳青认为共享经济将可以更有效地利用稀缺资源。她的乘车共享公司背后的投资者包括腾讯和阿里巴巴。该公司提供各类服务，从豪华车到出租车，从班车到拼车，甚至可以安排人骑自行车赶来提供代驾。它每日订单达600万，远超优步。
1991年，从前是大学教授的刘积仁以区区3000美元起家，在中国多沙的传统工业区东北的沈阳市创建了东软集团。该公司如今是中国最大的IT服务供应商之一。东软曾经开发出一套计算机操作系统，很快就被剽窃，公司几乎破产，这让刘积仁知道了保护知识产权的价值。还在美国的一个政府实验室做访问学者时，他就注意到了那里的学者和企业的研发人员密切合作。受此启发，他大量投资于研发。东软开发的很多产品中包括可以在手机上查看病历的系统。另一种医疗设备共享服务的商业模式也在开发之中，它让用户可以按交易付费。
刘积仁认为，东软能够起飞，是因为当时没有国有企业阻碍新软件公司。“现在中国政府在技术上很有经验……但在IT刚刚兴起时不是这样，”刘积仁说，“我们运气很好，当时IT产业太新，太依赖人才推动，政府不懂它的运作。”
Autonomous Systems: The Computer in the Cockpit
Why partial automation can be more dangerous than none at all
One way to tell who made the aircraft you are boarding is to steal a glimpse of the cockpit. A traditional control yoke in front of the pilots suggests a Boeing; a joystick beside each seat, an Airbus. Pilots argue about which system is better; neither is considered safer than the other. Each exemplifies a different approach to a problem that manufacturers of not just aircraft but also cars, trains and ships must grapple with as long as human operators handle increasingly automated machines.
The challenge of what engineers call the “human-machine interface” has tragically gained attention after the crash of an Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 MAX 8 on March 10th. Eyewitnesses reported that shortly after departing Addis Ababa, the aircraft climbed and dived repeatedly. Similarities were drawn with a fatal crash in Indonesia in October last year. That time, the pilots of a Lion Air MAX 8 struggled, also soon after take-off, with an automated safety system that erroneously tried to prevent the aircraft from stalling by lowering its nose.
Although authorities around the world have grounded the model, Boeing insists that it is airworthy. The company is updating the MAX’s automated flight-control software to make it easier for pilots to assume manual control. Boeing and Airbus both pack their planes with computers that do most of the flying. Each, though, espouses a different philosophy on how a pilot reacts to them, says Mudassir Lone of Cranfield University in Britain. Boeings are designed to make the pilot feel like the aviator in charge. Although the control yoke looks and feels like something from the analogue era, the way it behaves – including shaking when approaching a stall – is created digitally by a computer. Airbus’s joystick is seldom used besides take-off and landing. A sound alerts the pilot to trouble; in an Airbus, he is more supervisor than airman.
The big worry is what happens if a sensor feeds the flight-control system the wrong data. This might have happened in the Lion Air crash, according to a preliminary report. Something similar downed an Air France Airbus A330 over the Atlantic in 2009: an airspeed sensor iced over and the ensuing loss of data caused the autopilot to disengage. Unable to work out what was happening, the pilots lost control.
Switching from automatic to manual is not straightforward. Flight-control systems may not disengage entirely. Instead, they might continue to assist the pilot in an attempt to prevent a dangerous manoeuvre. When things do go wrong, it is critical that pilots follow the correct procedures, which are different for each model of aircraft. Pilots learn these and carry checklists spelling them out. Proliferation of systems necessitates frequent retraining. To make life easier for pilots, the MAX 8 employs a system that makes it feel to them like older, more familiar versions of the 737. But this adds another layer of complexity.
Incidents are not confined to aviation. In Washington, DC, automated trains have largely been out of service since 2009, when a faulty circuit made a stationary train invisible to the safety system on the one behind it. The driver was unable to brake in time; the resulting crash killed nine people. Ships may soon face similar problems. Some ferries and offshore support vessels have already replaced ship’s wheels with computer-assisted joysticks. A series of accidents involving self-driving cars may have been caused by sensors’ failure to recognize objects in the road, and drivers failing to respond fast enough.
Studies have shown that when people have to wrest control from an automated system, it can take them around five seconds to grasp what is happening. The monotony of monitoring a semi-automated vehicle may reduce vigilance by provoking what psychologists refer to as “passive” fatigue. Such concerns have led some car makers, Ford among them, to consider skipping semi-automation and go straight to something closer to full autonomy, cutting people out of the loop. That would remove the human-machine interface – but not humans’ machine-induced fears.
为何半自动可能比手动更危险
要想知道自己乘坐的飞机是哪家公司出品，一个办法是偷瞄一眼驾驶舱。操纵杆按传统方式放在驾驶员座位前方的是波音，放在驾驶员侧方的是空客。至于哪个系统更好，驾驶员们看法不一，他们也不认为哪个就更安全些。随着驾驶员需要操作越来越自动化的机器，无论是飞机，还是汽车、火车和轮船的制造商都必须处理同一个难题。波音和空客展现了不同的解决方案。
本月10日埃塞俄比亚航空公司的一架波音737 MAX 8坠毁后，工程师们所说的“人机界面”难题以悲剧性的方式受到了关注。目击者报告称，飞机离开亚的斯亚贝巴后不久反复爬升又俯冲，与印尼去年10月发生的致命事故相似。当时，也是在起飞后不久，狮航一架波音737 MAX 8客机的驾驶员无法控制自动安全系统，该系统错误地试图压低机头来防止飞机失速。
虽然各国政府已禁飞MAX 8客机，但波音公司仍坚称该型号客机是适航的。波音正在升级MAX的自动飞行控制软件，方便驾驶员手动接管飞行。波音和空客的飞机都安装了自动驾驶系统，控制着大部分的飞行操作。但英国克兰菲尔德大学的穆达希尔·隆内认为，两者在处理驾驶员如何对自动驾驶系统做出反应上有着不同的理念。波音的设计令驾驶者感觉自己是操控飞机的飞行员。虽然操纵杆的外观和感觉都像是模拟信号时代的产物，但其动作方式(包括在接近失速时的抖动)是由计算机以数字方式生成的。而在空客的飞机上，除了在起飞和降落时，驾驶员很少需要用到操纵杆。出现问题时，系统会发出警报声通知驾驶员。在空客飞机上，驾驶员更像指挥官，而不是飞行员。
人们最担心的是，万一传感器向飞控系统提供了错误数据会有什么后果。一份初步调查报告显示，狮航坠机事件中可能就出现了这种情况。2009年法航的一架空客A330客机也因类似问题坠落大西洋：空速传感器结冰，系统无法读取数据，导致自动驾驶仪解除控制。驾驶员搞不清楚发生了什么情况，没能控制住飞机。
从自动驾驶切换到手动操作不是一件简单的事情。飞控系统可能没有完全解除控制。相反，它可能会继续协助驾驶员以防出现危险操作。一旦真出现了问题，驾驶员按正确步骤处理是至关重要的。但每种机型的应对步骤各不相同，驾驶员必须一一学习并带上列明步骤的操作清单。新系统层出不穷，使得驾驶员需要频繁再培训。为方便驾驶员操作，MAX 8采用的系统在操作感受上沿袭了驾驶员们更熟悉的波音737旧机型。但这又增添了一层复杂性。
事故不仅限于航空领域。2009年，美国华盛顿特区的一辆地铁列车因电路故障造成安全系统失灵，撞上了前方停着的列车。自那以后，该地区的自动驾驶列车已基本停运。当时列车司机无法及时刹车，事故造成九人死亡。船舶也许很快会遇到类似问题。一些渡轮和近海辅助船已经用计算机辅助操纵杆取代舵轮。一系列涉及自动驾驶汽车的事故可能是由于传感器未能识别道路中的物体造成的，而驾驶员来不及反应。
研究表明，当人们必须要从自动化系统手上夺回控制权时，可能需要约五秒的反应时间来弄清楚状况。监控半自动驾驶交通工具的那种单调乏味可能会造成心理学家所说的“被动”疲劳，导致驾驶者的警觉性下降。出于这方面的担忧，福特等部分汽车制造商考虑跳过半自动化，直接采用更接近全自动的方式，将人类完全排除在外。人机界面的问题可能会就此消除，但人们因机器引发的恐惧依然存在。
Mobile Telecoms: Wireless: The Next Generation
A new wave of mobile technology is on its way, and will bring drastic change
Evolution or revolution?
渐进还是革命?
Technology divides the industry in another way, says Stéphane Téral of IHS, a market-research firm. One camp, he says, wants 5G “to take an evolutionary path, use everything they have and make it better.” It includes many existing makers of wireless-network gear and some operators, which want to protect their existing investments and take one step at a time. On February 11th, for instance, Qualcomm, a chip-design firm, introduced the world’s first 4G chip set that allows for data-transmission speeds of up to 1 gigabit per second. It does the trick by using a technique called “carrier aggregation”, which means it can combine up to ten wireless data streams of 100 megabits per second.
技术还以另一种方式分割电信行业，市场研究公司IHS的斯特凡·泰拉尔(Stéphane Téral)认为。他说，一个阵营希望5G“走上渐进的道路，利用现有一切，逐步改善”。这里面包括了许多现在的无线网络设备厂商及部分运营商，它们希望保护已有的投资，逐步改进。比如，2月11日，芯片设计公司高通(Qualcomm)推出全球首款数据传输速度高达1Gbps的4G芯片组。所运用的技术名为“载波聚合”，意味着每秒可以聚合多达十个100Mbps的数据流。
The other camp, explains Mr Téral, favours a revolutionary approach: to jump straight to cutting-edge technology. This could mean, for instance, leaving behind the conventional cellular structure of mobile networks, in which a single antenna communicates with all the devices within its cell. Instead, one set of small antennae would send out concentrated radio beams to scan for devices, then a second set would take over as each device comes within reach. It could also mean analysing usage data to predict what kind of connectivity a wireless subscriber will need next and adapt the network accordingly – a technique that the 5G Innovation Centre at the University of Surrey wants to develop.
泰拉尔解释说，另一阵营主张采取革命性的方式：直接跃升至尖端技术。这可能意味着，举例说，靠单一天线与基站覆盖范围内的所有设备作通信的传统蜂窝结构移动网络将被舍弃。取而代之的是，一组小型天线将发射集合无线电波束扫描设备，在搜索到设备后，第二组天线将逐一接管。这也意味着可能需要分析使用数据来预测无线用户下一步需要何种连接性能，然后对网络做相应调整——这正是萨里大学的5G创新中心希望开发的技术。
One of the most outspoken representatives of the revolutionary camp is China Mobile. For Chih-Lin I, its chief scientist, wireless networks, as currently designed, are no longer sustainable. Antennae are using ever more energy to push each extra megabit through the air. Her firm’s position, she says, is based on necessity: as the world’s biggest carrier, with 1.1m 4G base stations and 825m subscribers (more than all the European operators put together), problems with the current network architecture are exacerbated by the firm’s scale. Sceptics suspect there may be an “industrial agenda” at work, that favours Chinese equipment-makers and lowers the patent royalties these have to pay. The more different 5G is from 4G, the higher the chances that China can make its own intellectual property part of the standard.
这一革命阵营中最直言不讳的代表是中国移动。其首席科学家易芝玲认为，按目前的设计，无线网络难以持续。要传输更多数据，天线能耗会越来越大。易芝玲表示，其公司的立场是基于必要性：中国移动是全球最大的通信运营商，拥有110万4G基站及8.25亿用户(超过欧洲所有运营商的总和)，公司的规模进一步加剧了现有网络结构面临的问题。持怀疑态度者猜测其中也许存在一套“产业化安排”，偏袒中国设备制造商并降低这些公司须支付的专利使用费。5G与4G的差异越大，中国就越可趁机让自己的知识产权成为全球标准的一部分。
Whatever the motivation, Ms I’s vision of how 5G networks will ultimately be designed is widely shared. They will not only be “super fast”, she says, but “green and soft”, meaning much less energy-hungry and entirely controlled by software. As with computer systems before them, much of a network’s specialised hardware, such as the processor units that sit alongside each cell tower, will become “virtualised” – that is, it will be replaced with software, making it far easier to reconfigure. Wireless networks will become a bit like computing in the online “cloud”, and in some senses will merge with it, using the same off-the-shelf hardware.
不论动机如何，大家普遍认同易芝玲对5G网络最终设计的展望。她说，这些网络不止“超快”，还是“绿色和软性”的，即耗能低得多，且完全由软件控制。跟此前的电脑系统一样，5G网络的专用硬件(例如每一基站上的处理器单元)大部分会“虚拟化”，即会由软件取代，重新配置起来容易得多。无线网络将变得有点像在线“云”计算，而且在某种意义上将与之融合，使用相同的现成硬件。
Discussions have already begun about how 5G would change the industry’s structure. One question is whether wireless access will become even more of a commodity, says Chetan Sharma, a telecoms consultant. According to his estimates, operators’ share of total industry revenues has already fallen below 50% in America, with the rest going to mobile services such as Facebook’s smartphone apps, which make money through ads.
有关5G将如何改变通信行业结构的讨论已经展开。一个问题是，“无线接入”服务会否变得更像是一种日用商品，电信咨询师切坦·沙尔玛(Chetan Sharma)认为。据其估计，在美国电信业的总收入中，运营商所占的份额已跌至50%以下，其余份额为移动服务商所占据，比如像Facebook的智能手机应用，它们通过广告盈利。
The switch to 5G could help the operators reverse that decline by allowing them to do such things as market their own video content. But it is easier to imagine their decline accelerating, turning them into low-margin “dumb pipes”. If so, a further consolidation of an already highly concentrated industry may be inevitable: some countries may be left with just one provider of wireless infrastructure, just as they often have only one provider of water.
向5G转型，运营商或许可以通过销售自有视频内容等方式逆转目前的颓势。但更可能的是其业务加速下滑，沦为低利润的“哑管道”。倘若如此，这个本来已经高度集中的行业可能难免进一步整合：部分国家也许会只剩一个无线基础网络供应商，正如它们往往只有一家供水公司那样。
If the recent history of IT after the rise of cloud computing is any guide – with the likes of Dell, HP and IBM struggling to keep up – network-equipment makers will also get squeezed. Ericsson and Nokia already make nearly half of their sales by managing networks on behalf of operators. But 5G may finally bring about what has been long talked of, says Bengt Nordstrom of Northstream, another consulting firm: the convergence of the makers of computers and telecoms equipment, as standardisation and low margins force them together. Last year Ericsson formed partnerships first with HP and then with Cisco. Full mergers could follow at some point.
纵观云计算崛起之后IT行业近来的发展(戴尔、惠普、IBM这类公司难以跟上步伐)，如果有所启示，那就是网络设备制造商也将受到挤压。爱立信和诺基亚已有近半销售额是通过为运营商代管网络而取得。另一咨询公司Northstream的本特·诺思通(Bengt Nordstrom)表示，5G可能最终会令人们一直谈论的一件事成为现实：在标准化生产及低利润的压力下，计算机制造商和电信设备商将合二为一。去年，爱立信先后与惠普及思科缔结合作伙伴关系。日后可能出现全面并购整合。
Big, ugly mobile-phone masts will also become harder to spot. Antennae will be more numerous, for sure, but will shrink. Besides the rectangular array that China Mobile is testing in Shanghai, it is also experimenting with smaller, subtler “tiles” that can be combined and, say, embedded into the lettering on the side of a building. In this sense, but few others, the future of mobile telecoms will be invisible.
巨大而丑陋的移动通信天线杆也将变得踪影难寻。天线会变多，但体积肯定会缩小。除了中国移动在上海测试中的矩形天线阵列，公司还在试验采用更小型隐蔽的“瓷片”(tile)天线，可以组合并嵌入建筑物墙面的文字中。在这个意义上，遑论其他，移动通信的前景将变得难以觉察。